New Bull Market or Wealth Destruction?

The New Macro Supercycle will result in wealth destruction, but that’s a good thing as it will save capitalism through the resurgence of productivity, especially in the US and UK, but even across Europe. This is a year of enormous transition as the global economy enters a new macro supercycle. What does the dawn of the new policy era mean for your portfolio? Europe’s growth model is dead and why that’s very good for the economy and asset prices. Is it worth preserving the independence of the BoE? Our esteemed experts and guest speakers tackle these critical questions and much more so you can move forward and allocate capital with confidence.

Event details:

Date: Wednesday 28^th June 2023

Time:  Start at 8:45 and expected to finish at 2pm

Address:

One Moorgate Place

London

EC2R 6EA

Agenda

Welcome and introduction: Nicholas Mather, CEO, TS Lombard and Cyrus Mewawalla, Head of Thematic Intelligence, GlobalData. 8.50-9am

Session 1: New bull market or wealth destruction? Freya Beamish, Chief Economist, Keynote address. 9-9.30am

• The world is moving from excess savings and low interest rates to capital deepening and a higher returns economy
• Yields are in a secular upward shift, with markets yet to realise that faster inflation and growth are here to stay
• Valuations face a denouement with higher inflation and geopolitical and environmental shocks
• Wealth destruction to save capitalism, but how can we gain exposure to the high pressure economy?

Session 2: UK – Doom or rejuvenation? 9.30-10.30am

Moderator: Christopher Granville

Panel: Ed Balls, Freya Beamish and George Eaton

• BoE independence – how do we protect it from growing populist attacks? Is it worth preserving?
• Does the Labour Party have a growth strategy consistent with inflation under control and a stable Gilts market
• Meanwhile, upside economic surprises during the election run-up as the government reverses the Truss-Kwarteng “moron premium”
• Populism has taken an axe to the policy mistakes of the 2010s; can the UK survive cold turkey?
• The NHS and migration restrictions have become bottlenecks in the UK economy; what are the solutions?

Coffee break- 15 mins 

Session 3: US – Can it breakout of secular stagnation? 10.45-11.30am

Moderator: Skylar Montgomery Koning

Panel: Steve Blitz and Freya Beamish

• Do demographics, technology and global sourcing of labour & capital still dominate US outlook?
• What are the 2024 landing zones ranges for growth, inflation and unemployment?
• The return of positive real interest rates. A positive only if there is capital deepening, leveraging capital spending
• Can monetary policy get onside with government efforts to boost real growth?

Session 4: Europe and China – Both growth models bite the dust: what next? 11.30-12.30pm

Moderator: Christopher Granville

Panel: Wolfgang Munchau, Rory Green and Davide Oneglia

• China 3 D’s (debt, decoupling, demographics) force a structural slowdown amid escalating tech war
• Beijing’s response and global spillovers: last hurrah for EU profits
• Demography and climate change imply intense investment is the only way forward for Europe
• Higher energy costs and US IRA sharpen the challenge, but healthier policy mix and domestic demand could revive the European and Chinese phoenixes

LUNCH: Hot Buffet. 12.30-1.15pm

Session 5: The AI revolution or bubble? Position your portfolio for fast or slow. 1.15-2pm

Moderator: Andrea Cicione

Panel: Josep Bori and Cyrus Mewawalla

• The internet changed the world, this will too. But which horses do you back?
• Fundamental or fad: the state of the debate on the extent/pace of generative AI impact
• Portfolio impact of the transformational and the sceptical views
• Signposts to watch out for on which view is ‘winning’